For most of the last century, heating a building meant burning gas, oil, propane or wood. Heat pumps flip the model. They work like a refrigerator in reverse, pulling heat from outside air, ground or water and releasing it indoors. Because they move heat rather than generate it, the maths is inverted. A gas boiler turns about 90% of its fuel into useful heat; a heat pump can return three to five units of heat per unit of electricity, so the IEA rates modern units at up to about five times a gas boiler's efficiency, with seasonal performance factors usually in the 3–4 range for air-source designs.
Why the emissions story is bigger than one home
Heating is a huge, overlooked slice of global energy use, and almost all of it still runs on fossil fuels. The IEA's Global Energy Review 2025 puts the point plainly: solar PV, wind, nuclear, electric cars and heat pumps deployed since 2019 together avoid about 2.6 billion tonnes of CO₂ a year — roughly 7% of global emissions. The agency projects heat pumps could meet about 40% of global space-heating demand by 2035, yet today they cover only about 10% of building heating need. Closing that gap is one of the cheapest ways to cut building emissions.
What the sales figures actually show
The headline market number looks awkward. Global sales slipped about 1% in 2024 after a steep first-half drop, but the average hides two opposite stories. In the United States, sales rose about 15% and heat pumps outsold gas furnaces by a record 30% share. In the European Union, sales fell roughly 21%, with Germany down almost 50% and France about 25%. China remained the largest market at about 30% of global sales; Japan grew about 5%. Per the IEA Technology Collaboration Programme on Heat Pumping Technologies, the European dip was driven less by the technology than by lower gas prices, a construction slowdown and regulatory uncertainty.
The cold-climate myth is now dead
For decades the knock on heat pumps was simple: they don't work when it's cold. That objection is gone. In the U.S. DOE's Cold Climate Heat Pump Challenge, eight manufacturers built units that hold 100% of their heating capacity at 0°F (about -18°C) and keep running near -22°F (-30°C). ENERGY STAR's 2025 cold-climate spec requires a coefficient of performance of at least 1.75 at 5°F. As reported when Carrier completed the challenge, the units are reaching commercial markets. The Nordics already prove it: in Sweden roughly half of households have a heat pump and the technology holds about 92% of the national heating market.
Why this is a grid story, not just a home story
Electrifying heat moves demand off gas pipes and onto the wires. On a clean grid that is a clear win — switching from oil, propane or gas heating typically cuts heating emissions by 50–70%. But it also reshapes when power is needed. Cold snaps are precisely when heat pumps pull the hardest, adding a winter peak planners must serve. That is the same electrification pressure already visible from data-center buildout and EV charging: flexible, well-insulated homes smooth the load, while careless mass adoption just pushes the peak onto an already-strained grid.
What it means for buyers and builders
The honest catch is upfront cost. A heat pump usually costs more to install than a like-for-like gas or oil system, and ground-source designs run substantially higher. Payback comes from lower running costs plus incentives: the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act offered tax credits up to $2,000, and the UK's Boiler Upgrade Scheme granted £7,500. Industry research cited by BCC Research values the global market at about $88 billion in 2024 and projects roughly $134 billion by 2030, a pace that should keep driving down hardware and installation cost. For builders and landlords, pair the unit with weatherization and on-site solar where possible so it pays back faster.
For homeowners the sequence matters more than the brand. Seal air leaks and add insulation first — that lowers the peak load so a smaller, cheaper unit does the job and shortens payback — then check local incentives and get quotes from cold-climate-certified installers if you live somewhere with hard winters. Measure total cost of ownership over the unit's life, not the sticker price.
Frequently asked questions
Are heat pumps really three to five times more efficient than gas boilers?
In effect, yes. A gas boiler converts roughly 90% of its fuel into heat; a heat pump moves existing heat indoors instead of burning fuel, so it delivers three to five units of heat per unit of electricity. The IEA rates modern units at up to about five times a gas boiler's efficiency, with seasonal performance factors typically in the 3–4 range for air-source designs.
Do heat pumps actually work in very cold climates?
Yes, and this is the biggest change of the last two years. In the U.S. DOE's Cold Climate Heat Pump Challenge, eight manufacturers built units that hold 100% of capacity at 0°F and keep running near -22°F. ENERGY STAR's 2025 cold-climate spec requires a coefficient of performance of at least 1.75 at 5°F. The Nordics already prove it: in Sweden roughly half of households have one and the technology holds about 92% of the national heating market.
Why did European heat pump sales fall while U.S. sales rose in 2024?
The split was about policy and prices, not technology. Global sales dipped about 1% in 2024 after a sharp first-half drop. The U.S. rose about 15% and heat pumps outsold gas furnaces by a record 30% share. The EU fell roughly 21%, with Germany down almost 50% and France about 25%, driven by lower gas prices, a construction slowdown and regulatory uncertainty. China, the largest market, held about 30% of global sales.
How much do heat pumps cut emissions?
It depends on the grid, but the direction is large. The IEA notes that solar PV, wind, nuclear, electric cars and heat pumps deployed since 2019 together avoid about 2.6 billion tonnes of CO2 a year — around 7% of global emissions — and calls heat pumps the 'central technology' for low-carbon heating. Paired with a clean grid, they typically cut heating emissions by roughly 50–70%.
What should a homeowner considering a heat pump do first?
Start with the building envelope, not the machine. Sealing air leaks and adding insulation lowers the peak load so a smaller, cheaper unit does the job and shortens payback. Then check local incentives — the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act offered credits up to $2,000 and the UK Boiler Upgrade Scheme granted £7,500 — and get at least two quotes from cold-climate-certified installers. Measure total cost of ownership, not the sticker price.
This page is an informational compilation. For reference only — please refer to each source's official documentation.
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