Revised — October 10, 2026. This article uses the IEA’s 2025 report as a dated snapshot. We removed unsourced universal cost ratios and replaced them with explicitly hypothetical calculations and document checks.
Keep the report year and project status together
The IEA’s Global Hydrogen Review 2025 describes 2024 hydrogen demand at almost 100 million tonnes, with low-emissions production still below 1%. It puts the announced low-emissions production pipeline for 2030 at about 37 million tonnes per year. Projects already operating or having reached a final investment decision account for about 4.2 million tonnes per year of potential 2030 output.
Those figures describe different boundaries and states. An announced pipeline is not current production; a final investment decision is not proof of commissioning or deliveries. These are the 2025 report’s figures, not a claim that every project retained the same status in October 2026.
A document checklist for project readiness
| Milestone | Evidence to request | What it does not establish |
|---|---|---|
| Announced | Dated developer announcement and proposed scope. | Financing, permits or operation. |
| Investment decision | Specific, dated financing or investment decision for the named project. | Construction completion or annual deliveries. |
| Construction | Documented work on the actual facility and remaining dependencies. | Successful commissioning. |
| Commissioned | Defined commissioning milestone and operating evidence. | Full-year production or contracted delivery performance. |
| Delivered | Period, quantity, quality and delivery boundary supported by records. | Performance in every later period. |
Use the same project identity throughout. A parent company’s investment in a different plant is not evidence for the one you are comparing. Record when the evidence was published and keep “not established” distinct from “no”.
Construct the delivered-cost calculation
For a fictional electrolyser, assume electricity use of 50 kWh per kilogram and an electricity price of €0.06/kWh. Multiplication gives €3.00/kg for electricity. Add a hypothetical €1.20/kg for other production costs and €0.80/kg for conditioning and delivery: the example totals €5.00/kg. The assumptions are illustrative, not an industry average or a quoted offer.
| Hypothetical input | Base example | Changed electricity price |
|---|---|---|
| Electricity use | 50 kWh/kg | 50 kWh/kg |
| Electricity price | €0.06/kWh | €0.09/kWh |
| Electricity component | €3.00/kg | €4.50/kg |
| Other production costs | €1.20/kg | €1.20/kg |
| Conditioning and delivery | €0.80/kg | €0.80/kg |
| Illustrative delivered total | €5.00/kg | €6.50/kg |
The second column changes only one assumption. It is a sensitivity calculation, not a forecast. For a real offer, establish whether capital recovery, utilisation, water treatment, maintenance, storage, compression, transport, taxes and losses are included. If a supplier provides a plant-gate price, do not relabel it as delivered cost.
Match the supply to a specific end use
Start with the buyer’s required volume, quality, delivery schedule and connection point. Capacity in tonnes per year does not by itself establish how much usable product arrives in the months you need it. Ask which party bears interruptions, quality failures and changes in delivery cost.
Then compare alternatives at the same useful-output boundary. A per-kilogram fuel quote cannot directly answer the cost of a tonne of finished product without conversion efficiency, plant changes and operating constraints. Keep those inputs separate instead of hiding them in one attractive headline number.
A project comparison should therefore have three outputs: a dated readiness assessment, a delivered-cost model with visible assumptions, and a list of unresolved dependencies. A blank can be decision-relevant. It is better to retain an unanswered infrastructure question than to convert an announcement into a certainty.
Sources and scope
- IEA, Global Hydrogen Review 2025 — Executive summary: Supports the dated demand and project-pipeline snapshot. Our costing table is hypothetical and independent of those figures.
AI-assisted drafting. The linked material supports the stated facts; the examples and worksheets are Luminesca’s own editorial work. We did not conduct facility measurements, commercial project due diligence or model benchmarking for this article. Send a correction with the specific passage and supporting source.